Beguiling statistics

I’m not accustomed to watching BBC’s The One Show, but I did catch it on Wednesday this week, when there was an item on the charity Dentaid in Yorkshire town of Dewsbury. It mainly works overseas, but, as its website (https://www.dentaid.org/uk/) puts it, “It is a sad fact that many people in Britain are unable to access safe, affordable dental care. Although the NHS offers first class dental services, many vulnerable people aren’t registered with a dentist and only seek treatment when they are suffering pain.
“In some parts of the country there are long waiting lists for NHS dentists and people are developing dental problems while they are waiting for a place to become available.
“Dentaid is also aware that homeless people, those with a history of drug and alcohol abuse or patients with mental health problems can face obstacles when visiting a dental surgery.
“Furthermore, up to 40 per cent of children in the UK are not receiving any dental check-ups or oral health education.
Dentaid has a range of projects in the UK to tackle these problems.It offers free dental service to those who can’t get NHS treatment for one reason or another.” 

One of those was the mobile clinic visiting Dewsbury, treating around 200 people in a fortnight.

Photo from Dentaid's website; treatment in Dewsbury

This post isn’t about the multiple reasons, such as the cutting of school dental services and the push towards privatising health services, that have given rise to this. However it is about a passing remark made by Eddie Crouch, Vice Chair of the British Dental Association, being interviewed by Alex Jones and Matt Baker.

He stated, “Access to local NHS dentistry is a problem everywhere.” And so Alex Jones commented, with I assume a government statistic, “You know, there has been an increase in NHS dentists, 20%; so you would think that would improve things slightly. But not so?”

Eddie Crouch: “Well, what we’re talking about there is the global number of dentists actually in the NHS, but we’re not talking about the number working full-time in the NHS. That figure is irrelevant really. If the whole time numbers of dentists working in the NHS hasn’t increased, and in fact the funding hasn’t increased for a long time; so even if there were more dentists working in the NHS, they’re only working with the same amount of funding.”

He is of course right. Governments are fond of confounding criticism with statistics. Just watch Prime Minister’s Questions or listen to the Today programme. However one can select statistics to prove any case. Perhaps the most egregious example is to do with unemployment. The number of unemployed people has according to government figures been gratifyingly decreasing year by year. And yet oddly the average standard of living has also been falling and homelessness rising. One is therefore left with questions such as how many of the “employed” are working part-time, how many are on zero hours contracts, what sort of jobs are these “employed” working in and how many have been excluded from benefits by other means.

The important question is not about the statistics, but about the outcome. Mark Twain was reported as saying, “Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.’” I think he meant that statistics could be used to prove anything.  

It's an eloquent commentary on the current state of the NHS that desperate patients are being compelled to resort either to private firms - or to third-world charities.

The sincerity of computers

"Dear Mr Wenham,..." (sic) So begins an undated letter to me about renewing my blue badge, or as the letter prefers, my Blue Badge. Its ending has been puzzling me.
"Yours sincerely
 Oxfordshire County Council" (sic).

Can a county council really be sincere, I wonder, writing to me about my old blue badge, telling me to cut it up and post it back to them? I suspect not. When I was first eligible for a blue badge, I received a letter from a polite young, I imagine, lady, whose name I still recall. She could be and, I'm sure, was sincere. However, there's no longer any name anywhere in sight on the letter. So what am I to conclude?

My conclusion, as a former RSA Basic Clerical Skills moderator, is this: that the polite and literate Ms Cundy has been replaced by semi-literate automated computer software. Clearly the letter is generated from a database (possibly programmed by the said Ms Cundy before her removal). And some oaf has created a standard letter format with inconsistencies of punctuation (decide whether you will use commas or not in the address and signing-zoff lines) and the most inappropriate of signing-off phrases.

So now, I receive a letter from a machine which tells me it is sincere. Harrumph! In the words of Victor Meldrew, I don't believe it. What next? xxx at the bottom? A series of emoticons? Leave out the pretence at sincerity, please. That would be at least honest. Or how about employing another young person who needs a job?

"Mea culpa?"

George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, has written a letter to The Sunday Telegraph today. In it he says, "Our recovery - already facing powerful headwinds from high oil prices and the debt burden left behind by the boom years - is being killed off by the crisis on our doorstep." The response from Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, was predictable: "It's deeply complacent and out of touch for George Osborne to blame Europe for a double-dip recession made in Downing Street. He will fool nobody with these increasingly desperate excuses."


Déjà entendu? Don't you remember the Labour Government saying our economic woes were all the fault of the American sub-prime market and the bankers? It's really not our fault, they said. Of course the Tory Opposition repeatedly asserted that the deficit was actually the result of the government's irresponsible stewarding of public finances. Of course it was their fault, they told us.


Life's not that simple. It's not black and white. No wonder so many people feel like Mercutio, dying because of the ancient feud between the Montagues and Capulets - "a plague o' both your houses"! If the consequences weren't so serious for the people in the middle, we might write it off as "Punch and Judy politics". However there are casualties - from the young unemployed with little prospect of finding a job, to the genuine disabled facing cuts in their support. And of course there's the cost of people's faith (and interest) in politics.


This coming week our political leaders will be in the spotlight in front of Lord Justice Leveson. I don't suppose the modus operandi of their politics will be focused on. Perhaps Her Majesty might have a word, when she has a chance after her strenuous week. She might remind them of the New Testament reading from her St Paul's service on Tuesday which was read by the Prime Minister: "Live in harmony with one another. Do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly. Never be wise in your own sight. Repay no one evil for evil, but give thought to do what is honourable in the sight of all. If possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all." Did she choose it deliberately? I wonder.

Some thoughts of an old wreck

I have to say I seethed when I heard comfortably off blonde bimbo, Gaby Logan, describing retirement as being "on the scrapheap". Having retired on health grounds, I resent being described as "scrap". I don't consider I'm uselessly rusting; and even if I were useless, which maybe I shall become, I still won't be material for the crusher.

She was speaking during an item about the scrapping of compulsory retirement at 65. I don't have a problem with that per se, but I wonder about its timing. Here we are at a time when youngsters are struggling to find jobs. I noticed something similar in the BBC's ageism case. I'm sure the management are ruing their easing Miriam O'Reilly (53) out of Countryfile because "of those wrinkles when high definition comes in" (allegedly!!). Some agents seem to manage to persuade Auntie to retain their aging clients such as Sue Barker's (55). However there is a place for making room for new talent; in fact there's a need to.

There can be few things more socially counterproductive than a high rate of youth unemployment. If we wrinklies who've had a full working life and have some savings or a pension won't get off the job ladder, there can be no room to start for others at the bottom. On a day when Manchester Council alone announces the loss of 2,000 jobs, it's naïve to think that there'll be room both at the top and at the bottom of the jobs ladder. Although I can see the attraction for employers of retaining their experienced 65-year old employees and avoiding the expense of training youngsters, it's plain short-sightedness. By all means encourage people to work extended years when the economy is booming and employment is flush, but now it's daft - and dangerously disillusioning for our young people. Give the youngsters a break!

And by the way on Mr Michael Gove's newly announced "English Baccalaureate" I'm proud (or should that be ashamed?) to say that I would be among the failure statistics. Of course it was then GCEs, but I obtained neither of the humanities (Geography or History). As far as I recall there were a Maths (or two), an English (or two), a science and a few languages - but NO HUMANITY. Failure! That was because my teachers guided me to subjects which they thought I'd do well in - and enjoy (Now there's a novel concept!). On the whole, that's what good teachers do - guide their students to subjects which they'll do well in and, as a bonus, enjoy. Frankly I suspect the demand for a foreign language for those who have trouble enough with English is cloud-cuckoo land. Poor old state education - the place where ideologue politicians of every complexion flex their muscles! Anyway enough griping. Actually my retrospective failure amused me.