Assad - or the deluge

Picture from Russian bomber over Syria (Channel 4 News)

There was an unusually arresting interview on BBC Radio 4's Today Programme on Saturday. After a report by John Simpson (1 hour, 30 minutes into the programme) on Russia's activities in Syria, Justin Webb interviewed the former ambassador to Bahrain and Syria, Peter Ford, who after retiring from the Foreign Office went to work as UN representative for refugees in the Middle East until 2014. he had just returned from the area. He should know what he's talking about - and, it seemed to me, he did.

The interview so struck me that I transcribed it in full (you can listen to it here - after 1.30 in).

Do you think it’s fair to think of the Russian action bringing things to a head in a way that for all the short term costs might in the long term be a good thing?

Yes, I think that the Russian action is extremely positive. As John Simpson said… the Assad government had been on the ropes; a few months ago it had been haemorrhaging young men, who incidentally have been flocking to Europe, being unwilling to be conscripted. The Syrian army was down from a maximum earlier of about 300,000 to 80,000; it was on the ropes. The Russians have come in to redress the balance. And NATO, instead of sounding petulant and churlish, should actually be grateful to the Russians who are exercising some adult supervision; and what is happening is actually grist to the mill of Jeremy Corbyn who argues that NATO has lost the plot and is in fact often a risk to British security.

But in what way though could it be a long-term solution for Assad to be bolstered, because John Simpson made the point that he is more powerful in the short term, but in the long term all this does potentially is put off the day when he has to go and Syria has to be sorted out?

Oh, I totally disagree. Assad does not have to go. Let us not be brow-beaten by David Cameron repeating this mantra. I was in Northern Jordan a few days ago: I spoke to a young refugee, a teenager, a girl. I asked her, “Who do you blame?” She said, “We blame them all. We blame the jihadis for coming to our village and forcing us to flee - and we blame the government for not being strong enough.” Not strong enough! Many Syrians have this grievance against the government; so the government can hardly be blamed when it does try harder and now, with Russian support, is more likely to prevail. The choice - (Interviewer tries to interrupt) - I’m sorry, the choice cannot be shirked. It’s Assad or the deluge. NATO leaders need to address this question, and answer it to the people, like me - the voice of the ordinary man. I’m afraid we’re not getting this from the Labour Party in Britain. I don’t know why they’re nervous about tackling the government on this, because this actually a point of weakness in the government’s story. They’re not answering, “Who will replace Assad?”

Yes, but they’re nervous about saying they support Assad, and that Assad is the long-term solution because he has murdered so many of his own people, and they know, or they suspect, that he is such a divisive force, because of that in sectarian and political terms, that he could not be a realistic long-term leader of Syria.

That’s simply untrue. There’s every prospect that things could return to the status quo ante if the military campaign of Russia and Syria - 

Really, even after all the barrel bombs and the killing? 

Yes, he’s never going to be popular with everybody, but which Middle East leader is?  The truth of the matter is that Assad is supported by a good 40% of the Syrian people.  That is more actually than voted for David Cameron.  

Are you seriously expecting now that following on from the Russian action and if this is bringing things to a head on the ground in Syria and indeed in the air over Syria that there is a serious diplomatic volte face now in the West and that people follow what you’ve been suggesting this morning as a serious prospect in diplomacy?

No. That would be too much to expect, but what is realistic to expect is that the West should pipe down, take a deep breath, let the Russians get on with it, NATO should continue to do what it can to fight ISIS, but it should not undermine the one force with boots on the ground, which, as John Simpson said earlier, is the only one likely to prevail against ISIS. It is totally shambolic to have a policy which is mutually contradictory.

You talk about boots on the ground. John as you say mentioned it. There’s no realistic prospect of Britain putting boots on the ground and there is occasionally discussion in America about the options that it might have had in the past for doing it and more discussion in the last few days. Is it realistic? Is it too late now for outside powers, not just in the West, but other outside powers, to intervene themselves, possibly with the UN, now that the Russians seem to be on board with some kind of action? Is that realistic or simply not?

   No, I’m afraid that is not realistic. Western powers have impaled themselves on this policy of calling for the downfall of Assad. Anyhow it’s probably a good thing that they not put boots on the ground. But they can help, by, for example, lifting sanctions on the Syrian economy which penalise only the poor Syrian people. This is one reason why so many are fleeing Syria - the Western sanctions, about which we never hear a word. 

Well, at the end of that admirably long interview I had a number of thoughts. One was how refreshing it was for the BBC to have had the courage to allow another voice from the government party line, which, Peter Ford is right, we do hear repeated like a mantra. It's like a PR-generated slogan - if something's repeated enough, people will come to believe it. Another was how very undiplomatically frank and outspoken this former ambassador was. I should imagine it did his career no favours. But hopefully there are still those within the diplomatic service who tell their political masters the truth as it is. And finally I wondered whether any of our political representatives would take a blind bit of notice of what is an admittedly inconvenient but patent truth, and be humble enough to confess we've got it wrong again. The story we hear so often is not the whole truth. What is true is that thousands have died and millions have lost their homes - and we are not helping.

Part of wall war memorial in Tartus, Syria (Channel 4 News)

Where angels fear to tread

People sometimes ask me if I've ever been to Israel - or to the Holy Land. And the answer is that I have, in 1966! That was before the Six Day War, when the political map so radically changed. As a family we did something which would be impossible nowadays, I suspect: drove overland across Europe, through Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, in a black Ford Consul 375, spending a week in East Jerusalem (as it then was) before crossing through the Mandelbaum Gate into West Jerusalem (as it then was). The political arrangement seemed to be working quite peacefully, as far as I in my teenage  years could tell. However the uneasy equilibrium was destroyed when less than a year later Israel launched preemptive strikes against the perceived threat of hostile forces gathering on all its borders.

I'm not one for pontificating on the rights and wrongs of the present situation in the Middle East. I do suspect that meddling by external "powers" only exacerbates the mess. The British establishment has not learned the lessons of Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, it seems, with its careless encouragement of the Syrian uprising over two years ago. I've just been listening to Katie Melua's thoughtful song:
"If a black man is racist, is it okay
if it's the white man's racism that made him that way,
'cause the bully's the victim, they say?
By some sense they're all the same,
'cause the line between wrong and right
is the width of a thread from a spider's web...". Apportioning blame is a mug's, or a thug's, game.

One thing I am certain of is that isolation and non-communication is not a productive policy. Which is why I am sorry that Stephen Hawking has decided not to attend a conference next month in Israel. At first it was announced "for health reasons"; then it was because of a boycott of Israel by British academics - New York Times report. It's sad, because dialogue is always more productive than silence. It's ironic, because the Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem appears to be on the threshhold of a breakthrough in an ethical stem-cell treatment for ALS/MND (from which he and I suffer) and other neurodegenerative diseases, and I personally wouldn't want Israel to boycott me or fellow MND patients with the fruit of their research. A further irony is his nifty speech-generation device which is so well known as his "voice" has at its heart "a fiendishly clever silicon chip that was designed in . . . yes, Israel" (Rod Liddle, in The Sunday Times yesterday).

I much prefer the Jewish conductor, Daniel Barenboim's approach with the West-Eastern Divan Orchestra, which he co-founded in 1999 with Palestinian American, Edward Said, which brings together musicians from all over the Middle East, including Israel and Iran. "The aim of the West-Eastern Divan Orchestra is to promote understanding between Israelis and Palestinians and pave the way for a peaceful and fair solution of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Barenboim himself has spoken of the ensemble as follows:
'The Divan is not a love story, and it is not a peace story. It has very flatteringly been described as a project for peace. It isn't. It's not going to bring peace, whether you play well or not so well. The Divan was conceived as a project against ignorance. A project (for) the fact that it is absolutely essential for people to get to know the other, to understand what the other thinks and feels, without necessarily agreeing with it. I'm not trying to convert the Arab members of the Divan to the Israeli point of view, and [I'm] not trying to convince the Israelis to the Arab point of view. But I want to - and unfortunately I am alone in this now that Edward died a few years ago - ...create a platform where the two sides can disagree and not resort to knives.'" (Wikipedia) 

I was recently sent a link to this fascinating YouTube clip about Ulfat Khaider, an Arab-Israeli athlete. On Facebook, she's described as reaching high peaks "not only as a mountain climber, extreme sportswoman and volleyball player (she played for the Israeli national team), but as a remarkable woman striving for peace": YouTube Ulfat Khaider. This comment followed on Facebook: "Et on dit qu'il y a l'apartheid en Israel?! Pas seulement qu'il n'y a pas d'Apartheid, bien au contraire: dans quel pays arabe elle aurait pu devenir la champion qu'elle est? la femme libre et moderne qu'elle est? Bravo Ulfat et merci!" (And they say there's apartheid in Israel! Not only is there not apartheid - quite the contrary. In which Arab country could she have become the champion she is? The liberated modern woman that she is? Bravo and thanks!)

I try not to be naïve about the complexities of the Middle East and the Palestinian "question". Of course, I don't know the solution, but I would say, whether you're a scientist, musician or sportsman, that fighting ignorance is the better way than colluding with it. In Barenboim's words, "It is absolutely essential for people to get to know the other, to understand what the other thinks and feels, without necessarily agreeing with it." 

Remembering

Shortly before 11 am this morning I received and read this from Andrew White's UK link-man. I thought it was a positive note to strike: remember the peacemakers. Peacemaking is hard and costly work - and frequently dangerous. War is only ever justified if its aim and result is to establish justice and peace. But as Andrew White and his friends are committed to showing, there is a better way than war. Perhaps you'd include him in your remembering this weekend. There's no more critical region for peace than the Middle East, which is teetering on the edge of catastrophic conflict.

Dear Friends, As many of you will know, on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month 1918, Armistice was signed on the Great War; the war that was to have ended all wars. However since then, over 100 million people have died in armed conflict around the world, or by disease and famine brought about directly by the privations of war.  At 11am today, many of us will take a pause from our usual busyness to remember with gratitude those who gave their lives for the freedoms we now enjoy. The terrible reality is that most of those 100 million souls did not give their lives for noble freedom, but for myriad other reasons; largely the folly and greed of their fellow man.  We have seen over-eager military intervention for political gain.  Conversely, we have seen a deplorable lack of intervention when prompt, decisive action could have headed tragedy off at the pass. But most of all, we have seen rhetoric ramping up violence in place of dialogue that would have defused tension. In Baghdad, where we work, a good month is one in which merely 150 civilians lose their lives to sectarian violence.  A year ago on October 31, five militiamen stormed the Syrian Catholic church during the Sunday service, terrorised them in unimaginable ways for four hours, before detonating their suicide vests, leaving 48 worshipers dead. In the months that followed we witnessed a marked increase in violence against the Christian minority in Iraq.  Pipe bombs were planted outside front doors.  Sticky bombs were placed under their cars.  Sameh was head of security at St George's church.  He is a Muslim but was targeted because his job is to protect our church.  He survived the car bomb, but his leg was blown off above the knee. At least 120 Christians died in those two months, for no other reason than for their faith. Blessed are the peacemakers But then it all changed.  Working with the most senior religious leaders in Iraq, we convened a three day dialogue in Copenhagen which resulted in a joint Sunni/Shia declaration, which was then read out in mosques across Iraq. Through our work, a declaration that: "The Christian community is the root of Iraq" was heard.  The result of this declaration?  Violence against the Christian minority stopped that very day.  With a few sad exceptions, the agreement holds Now, we at the Foundation for Relief and Reconciliation in the Middle East make no claim to possess a panacea for all the world's ills. But it is our experience that carefully mediated dialogue can make the world of difference in de-escalating conflict. We also know this; the only way to make a difference in these seemingly intractable conflicts is by being as committed to peace as the suicide bombers are to their cause. What a difference it would make if the international community were to devote the resources currently spent on waging war to building peace. (My emphasis - Michael) So as you pause at the 11th hour on Friday, spare a prayer for the peacemakers.  At the going down of the sun, and in the morning, we will remember them.  With every blessing, Peter Marsden FRRME Director

Week ending

A young girl recently wrote a letter to God asking "How did you get invented?" Eventually she received a reply from the Archbishop of Canterbury. You can read it here: Alex Renton writes to God. I think you'll be impressed. Her mother certainly was. He certainly has a varied job, from celebrating Easter to explaining theology to children (well) to royal weddings to holding a dysfunctional church together. I suspect he enjoys some parts more than others.

This afternoon Jane and I did our second stint representing Oxfordshire's MNDA at the Incurable Optimism exhibition at the Natural History Museum in Oxford. A number of people mistook me for Patrick Joyce, the artist. (He's the character with a paintbrush in his mouth, next to his portrait of Stephen Hawking.) I assured them that I had the same MND as him but was just another exhibit. We had some nice conversations with visitors. There was one couple who'd come from New Zealand.

Yesterday we went to the united churches' service on the green in Grove to celebrate Good Friday. It's a pity we don't do it more often imho.

Meanwhile the Middle East today produces more disturbing news items. I'm sure we don't get a balanced picture. For example, I'm puzzled about the reports of civilian casualties in Misrata. To me the insurgent soldiers look like civilians holding weapons. Whatever is happening in Libya and Syria is ghastly. It seems as though we are being shown pictures to justify mission creep. Unmanned drones are now deployed. Egypt and Tunisia don't appear to have shaken down quite as neatly as we overoptimistically first hoped, whilst Bahrain (whose crown prince comes as an honoured guest to Friday's wedding) and Yemen still have scenes of startling repression. Reconciliation is not easily won, and it's not won by force of arms. It's actually won by a surrender of power.

Christ is risen: He is risen indeed
Alleluiah!

PS I've just received this quotation from Pope Benedict's Q & A session about the use of force: "This [Christ's life and death] is what shows us the true face of God, that violence never comes from God, never helps bring anything good, but is a destructive means and not the path to escape difficulties. He is thus a strong voice against every type of violence. He strongly invites all sides to renounce violence, even if they feel they are right. The only path is to renounce violence, to begin anew with dialogue, with the attempt to find peace together, with a new concern for one another, a new willingness to be open to one another. This, dear lady, is Jesus' true message: seek peace with the means of peace and leave violence aside." Amen, I say. And I'm glad that in his Easter sermon he urged for "peace to triumph over division, hate and violence".

The Middle East, Isaiah and good worship

I realise I've apparently not been aware of the historic events taking place in the North Africa and the Middle East. My Facebook friends will know, however, that I did sign up on the Cancel the Bahrain Grand Prix group. I hardly think the 143 of us made a great impact on the decision which was quite soon made! In truth the domino succession of protests starting from Tunisia has been extraordinary to watch, and to understand. The factors of militant Islam's presence in the region and Israel in the middle are what contribute to the sense of international moment to the pictures on TV. These are not mere domestic upheavals. They could involve us all.


At the height of the protests in Cairo and with a new government in Jordan, Andrew White, vicar of Baghdad, pointed out the intriguing prophecy of Isaiah 19. 23-25: 'In that day there will be a highway from Egypt to Iraq (Assyria), and Iraq will come into Egypt, and Egypt into Iraq, and the Egyptians will worship with the Iraqis. In that day Israel will be the third with Egypt and Iraq, a blessing in the midst of the earth, whom the LORD of hosts has blessed, saying, "Blessed be Egypt my people, and Iraq the work of my hands, and Israel my inheritance."' And he commented: 'Today it is beginning to happen. We do not know what will happen next. I can only say the words at the beginning of each service the “The Lord is here and His Spirit is with us." Keep your eyes on Isaiah 19.'

Vicky Beeching 

Talking of Isaiah, I've been thinking about churches and worship recently, and I came across an interesting chapter in Micah's Challenge written by Tony Campolo. It was about Isaiah 58. He points out that worship not only reflects but also shapes theology; and he asks: "Will this new kind of worship music mould our theologies so that our religion in the years that lie ahead will be likened to that of the people of ancient Israel, devoid of social justice concerns and, therefore, unacceptable to God? Will we have worship music that has Christians... with uplifted hands singing love songs to God, while failing to 'seek justice, correct oppression, defend the fatherless, and plead for the widow?'"


There is a great YouTube clip where Vicky Beeching, who studied theology under my brother in Oxford, introduces her new worship album, Heaven Invades. I think she has it just right. Vicky Beeching talks about worship